4月23日，高通召开会议，发布了该公司截至3月29日的2015财年第二财季报告。财报显示，截至3月29日的第二财季，高通营收为69亿美元，较上年同期的64亿美元增长8%，较上一财季的71亿美元下滑3%，净利润为11亿美元，较上年同期下滑46%，较上一季度环比下滑47%。
会后第一时间，高通环境中的圣地亚哥华人群内始出现各种反应。未名空间社交网站上，会后没过多久就有人将会议报告贴出。网友fangzhou2说：“高通CEO今天的讲话是预示着大规模裁员吗？！高通CEO今天的讲话是预示着大规模裁员吗？利润少了46%！看明天股价了。” iiiiiiiiii 说：“很难说不会砍人啊。” fangz hou2 解释：“我的意思是大幅度砍人，自去年以来Q公司零星裁员持续。 dchow201说：“会议脚本，很长，形势不乐观啊”。翌日dchow201发帖说：“今天一个做显示的部门已经宣布关了，100多人没了工作。”
究竟是钢是铁，还待静观默察。
附腾讯记者报道：
高通第二财季净利大幅下跌
[摘要]业绩预期令分析师失望，还下调全年营收预期，盘后股价下跌。
腾讯科技讯 4月23日，高通今天发布了该公司截至3月29日的2015财年第二财季财报。财报显示，高通第二财季营收为69亿美元，同比增长8%，环比下滑3%；净利润为11亿美元，较上年同期下滑46%，较上一季度环比下滑47%。
财报显示，尽管利润同比环比大幅下跌，但是，高通第二财季营收和不按照美国通用会计准则计量的利润均超过了业界分析师的预期。不过，由于高通第三财季的业绩预期不及分析师的水平，而且该公司还下调了2015财年全年营收预期，受此影响，高通当日盘后股价呈现下跌局面。
净利润的下滑，主要归咎于与中国发改委在解决反垄断争端这一事务而被罚款的影响，除此之外，在激进投资方Jana Partners公司的压力之下，高通公司还再度下调了今年的业绩预期。与此同时，高通还声称，在芯片制造业务方面的不利局面也将会拖累该公司2015下半财年的营收。
高通CEO史蒂夫•莫伦科夫(Steve Mollenkopf) 称，该公司正在评估可能的削减成本方案，以此来提升公司的运营效率。
今年2月份，高通公司声称，作为与中国国家发改委解决反垄断争端以及专利授权调整相关问题的部分措施，该公司向中方支付了9.75亿美元的罚款。不过，高通 认为，这一解决协议将为其在中国市场授权更多专利产品和销售更多芯片等铺平道路。在中国市场，一些客户直到相关的调查结束之后才与高通签署了合作协议。
在与中方达成了解决方案之后，高通还一度略微上调了本财年的业绩预期，不过，该公司还面临着其它一些问题，例如三星在自己的新旗舰智能手中改用了三星自己的芯片，而不是高通的芯片。
除此之外，Jana Partners公司还在4月13日披露，称收购了20多亿股高通股票，该投资公司已经商谈了一些提升高通股价的方案，其中包括将高通的芯片部门与专利授权部门分离等。要知道，芯片部门贡献了高通公司三分之二左右的利润。
就在4月13日，高通公司发布了一份声明，对Jana Partners的投资表示欢迎，但同时也表示，公司两部门的业务模式能够产生极具价值的商业协同性。与此同时，高通也重申了向股东返还现金的计划，包括 在此前的资本返还承诺的基础上再在未来一年之内收购100亿美元股票等。
高管评论：
莫伦科夫称：“我们对公司第二财季取得的业绩感到高兴，由于我们授权的3G/4G设备出货量增加，公司第二财季的授权营收和利润都创下了新高纪录。我们看到 全球3G/4G设备的需求不断增长，包括中国市场在内。在中国市场，我们的授权业务如今也越来越多地参与到快速增长的3G/4G技术领域。我们对公司未来 的重大增长机遇仍然充满自信，我们正在下调2015财年的QCT预期，主要是由于优级客户份额变化的影响和大客户份额的下滑。除了现行的开支管理计划之 外，我们已经开始全面审查我们的成本结构，以此明确提升运营利率的机会，同时也进一步巩固和拓展我们的技术与产品领先地位。”
莫伦科夫还认为，近期与中国方面达成的问题解决方案应当会有助于提升高通公司在中国市场的授权业务。
主要业绩：
在 截至3月29日的第二财季，高通营收为69亿美元，较上年同期的64亿美元增长8%，较上一财季的71亿美元下滑3%，但超过了华尔街分析师平均预计的 68.2亿美元。高通第二财季的净利润为11亿美元，比去年同期的20亿美元下滑46%，环比下滑47%；每股摊薄收益0.63美元，去年同期为1.14 美元，上一季度为1.17美元。高通第二财季运营利润为13亿美元，较上年同期的20亿美元下滑了33%，较上一财季的21亿美元下滑35%。
不按照美国通用会计准则，高通第二财季净利润为23亿美元，同比增长4%，较上一财季增长3%；合每股摊薄收益1.40美元，去年同期为1.31美元，上一 财季为1.34美元。高通第二财季业绩超过了市场预期。据华尔街的市场分析师此前平均预计，不按照美国通用会计准则，高通第二财季每股摊薄收益为1.33 美元。
资本状况：
截至2015年3月29日，高通持有的现金、现金等价物和有价证券总额为296亿美元，低于截至2014财年第二财季末的321亿美元和截至2015财年第二财季末的316亿美元。
红利：
高通在第二财季期间向股东返还了26亿美元现金，其中包括动用19亿美元回购2780万股流通股；以及每股派息0.42美元，合计6.89亿美元。
业绩展望：
展望2015财年第三财季，高通预计，2015财年第三财季营收将介于54亿美元到62亿美元之间，同比约下滑9%到21%之间，也低于业界分析师平均预计的64.7亿美元；预计第三财季每股摊薄收益将介于0.67美元到0.82美元之间，同比下滑37%至49%之间。
高通同时还下调了2015财年的整体营收预期。该公司当前预计，2015财年营收将介于250亿美元到270亿美元之间，即下滑6%到增长2%，低于该公司 自身此前预计的263亿美元到280亿美元之间，即比2014财年下滑1%到增长6%；预计2015财年每股摊薄收益将介于3.28美元到3.68美元之 间，即比2014财年下滑19%到23%，低于此前预计的3.65美元至3.76美元之间，即比2014财年下滑21%至下滑29%之间。
高通预计第三财季不按照美国通用会计准则计量的每股摊薄利润将介于0.85美元到1美元之间，低于业界分析师平均预计的1.13美元；预计2015财年不按照美国通用会计准则计量的每股摊薄利润将介于4.6美元到5美元之间，低于此前预计的4.85美元到5.05美元。
高通周三下调了2015全财年业绩预期，这也是该公司今年第二次下调这样的业绩预期，上次下调业绩预期发生在今年1月。高通在下调业绩预期方面，再度将责任归咎于两大因素——苹果的力量和三星在Galaxy S6使用自己的处理器
削减成本计划：
高通方面还宣布，该公司将寻求一些方案，以此来削减公司成本。对此，莫伦科夫表示：“除了我们现行的开支管理计划之外，我们还将对公司的成本结构进行全面的审查，以找到增加运营利率的机会，同时还要提升我们在技术与产品领域的地位。”
股价表现：
高通股价周三在纳斯达克市场常规交易中上涨0.37美元，报收于68.94美元，涨幅为0.54%。在当日随后的盘后交易中（截至发稿之时），高通股价下跌 1.54美元，跌幅为2.23%，到67.40美元。过去52周，高通最高股价为81.97美元，最高股价为62.26美元。（悦潼）
附第二财报会议脚本：
Qualcomm Incorporated (NASDAQ:QCOM)
Q2 2015 Earnings Conference Call
April 22, 2015 04:45 PM ET
Executives
Warren Kneeshaw – Vice President, Investor Relations
Steve Mollenkopf – Chief Executive Officer
Derek Aberle – President
George Davis – Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Analysts
Tim Long – BMO Capital Markets
Mike Walkley – Canaccord Genuity
Ehud Gelblum – Citigroup
Blaine Curtis – Barclays
Kulbinder Garcha – Credit Suisse
Stacy Rasgon – Bernstein
James Faucette – Morgan Stanley
Tal Liani – Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Timothy Arcuri – Cowen & Company
C.J. Muse – Evercore ISI
Srini Pajjuri – CLSA
Tavis McCourt – Raymond James
Mark Sue – RBC Capital Markets
Presentation
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Qualcomm’s
Second Quarter Fiscal 2015 Conference Call. At this time, all participants
are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer
session. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being
recorded, April 22, 2015. The playback number for today’s call is 855-859-
2056. International callers please dial 404-537-3406. The playback
Qualcomm Incorporated (NASDAQ:QCOM)
Q2 2015 Earnings Conference Call
April 22, 2015 04:45 PM ET
Executives
Warren Kneeshaw – Vice President, Investor Relations
Steve Mollenkopf – Chief Executive Officer
Derek Aberle – President
George Davis – Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Analysts
Tim Long – BMO Capital Markets
Mike Walkley – Canaccord Genuity
Ehud Gelblum – Citigroup
Blaine Curtis – Barclays
Kulbinder Garcha – Credit Suisse
Stacy Rasgon – Bernstein
James Faucette – Morgan Stanley
Tal Liani – Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Timothy Arcuri – Cowen & Company
C.J. Muse – Evercore ISI
Srini Pajjuri – CLSA
Tavis McCourt – Raymond James
Mark Sue – RBC Capital Markets
Presentation
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Qualcomm’s
Second Quarter Fiscal 2015 Conference Call. At this time, all participants
are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer
session. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being
recorded, April 22, 2015. The playback number for today’s call is 855-859-
2056. International callers please dial 404-537-3406. The playback
reservation number is 18876512.
I would now like to turn the call over to Warren Kneeshaw, Vice President of
Investor Relations. Mr. Kneeshaw, please go ahead.
Warren Kneeshaw
Thank you, Brent, and good afternoon, everyone. Today’s call will include
prepared remarks by Steve Mollenkopf, Derek Aberle, and George Davis. In
addition, Cristiano Amon, Murthy Renduchintala, and Don Rosenberg will join
the question-and-answer session. An Internet presentation and audio
broadcast accompanying this call and you can access them by visiting our Web
site at www.qualcomm.com.
During this conference call, we will use non-GAAP financial measures as
defined in Regulation G, and you can find the related reconciliations to
GAAP on our website. I’d also like to direct you to our 10-Q and
earnings release, which were filed and furnished respectively with the SEC
today and are available on our website. During this conference call, we will make forward-looking statements
regarding future events or the future business or results of the company.
Actual events or results could differ materially from those projected in the
forward-looking statements. Please refer to our SEC filings, including our
most recent 10-Q, which contain important factors that could cause actual
results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements.
And now to comments from Qualcomm’s Chief Executive Officer, Steve
Mollenkopf.
Steve Mollenkopf
Thank you, Warren, and good afternoon, everyone. We just completed a solid
quarter with record performance in QTL, as the global adoption of our broad
set of technologies drove all-time high 3G/4G device shipments by our
licensees. In addition, we had several major accomplishments, including the
resolution of the NDRC investigation, our announcement of a $15 billion
stock buyback authorization, and a 14% increase in the dividend.
We are pleased that the NDRC investigation has been concluded and believe
that our licensing business is now better positioned to participate in China
’s broad adoption of 3G/4G technology. The impact of the resolution and the
recent agreement with a large licensee in China announced on the January
call are starting to positively impact the QTL business. Derek will discuss
this in more detail in a few moments.
While we are ahead of our expectations in the first half of the fiscal year,
we are guiding the second half lower due to a number of factors in QCT.
First, the extent of the impact of OEM concentration at the premium tier and
the impact of share loss in the Galaxy S6 and Note.
Second, the altered launch plans of the OEMs in the premium tier with some
OEMs delaying launches and then OEM rationalizing their portfolio by
deemphasizing designs using our legacy parts. We are not seeing a change
design share or the competitive environment, but rather a change in timing
of some 810 designs.
And finally, QCT continues to face competitive pressures in China. The China
contribution to earnings is roughly flat to the previous outlook with more
strength at the premium tier offsetting some expected share loss in the low
tier in the fourth quarter. As I will explain later, we expect this near-
term trend to improve as we launch new parts and China enters modem
transition later in this calendar year.
Based on our current customer engagements and our future product roadmap, we
do not believe these product cycle issues reflect the long-term change in
QCT’s competitive positioning. However, we do believe the impact of the
current product cycle will extend into next fiscal year.
Clearly, we are not pleased with our reduced outlook. Accordingly, we have
initiated a comprehensive review of our cost structure in QCT and throughout
the company. The goals of this review are to align our cost structure with
the changing marketplace and improve efficiency. We have begun a
comprehensive assessment of costs and opportunities for greater efficiency
company-wide with the help of an outside expert and will be reporting on
those initiatives on the Q3 earnings call.
With respect to the roadmap, we remain confident that our differentiated
Snapdragon processor and modem leadership positions us well across multiple
price tiers and customer segments entering the next product cycle. In the
premium tier, we are very pleased with the design traction on the Snapdragon
810 with over 60 designs having won the key premium design slots with the
exception of Samsung.
Since our last earnings call, LG has begun shipping the innovative G Flex2,
Sony has announced the incredibly thin Xperia Z4 phone and tablet, and
Xiaomi has announced the Mi Note 4 with category 9 carrier aggregation.
Recently teardowns and press reports correctly highlight the advantages
delivered by our integrated approach.
We are also encouraged by the customer interest in our new Snapdragon 820,
which is on track to ship in the second half of this calendar year and is
built on the latest FinFET node. The Snapdragon 820 represents a new design
point for our SoC architecture and will be the first to include our new
custom 64-bit CPU microarchitecture.
Since our last call and in response to the competitive environment in China,
we have also enhanced the Snapdragon 615, which will be commercial this
year. In addition, we expect a modem transition in China later this year and
we are seeing signals to the OEMs from the operators consistent with this
view. Our Snapdragon 425 with industry leading uplink carrier aggregation
and a new low-cost RF front-end is well positioned for this opportunity and
is on track to be in devices later this calendar year, well ahead of our
competition.
Turning to the longer-term outlook, the smartphone opportunity remains a
strong positive for Qualcomm and we forecast continued healthy global demand
in the near-term and over the next several years. IDC estimates that over 8
.5 billion smartphones will be sold from 2015 through 2019. We also continue
to gain traction in adjacent areas where our mobile technologies and
capabilities can deliver next generation solutions. Areas such as automotive
, the Internet of Things, mobile computing, and networking, these areas are
expected to represent large new opportunities for Qualcomm with over 5
billion new non-phone connected device shipments expected in calendar year
2018.
Further, shipments in these areas are contributing over 10% of QCT’s fiscal
year 2015 estimated revenue. In automotive, for instance, we have over 40
connected car programs with 15 plus OEMs and we recently announced two new
modems, the Snapdragon X12 and X12 that augment our portfolio to support
connectivity across all tiers of the automotive industry.
Our scale and position in mobile makes us well positioned to capitalize on
these opportunities. In summary, we are well positioned to address the
significant opportunities ahead given the strength in our core businesses
and traction in new growth opportunities. We are focused on completing our
implementation of the rectification plan in China, concluding new license
agreements in China and improving compliance. We’re also investing in the
future generations of the modem and connectivity, including 4G enhancements
such as LTE-U and 5G, as well as future evolutions of Wi-Fi and the
convergence of Wi-Fi and Cellular. We are confident in our QCT roadmap for
the reasons I just explained, but intend to take a comprehensive look at our
cost structure in-light of the changing industry dynamics and structure.
I would now like to turn the call over to Qualcomm’s President Derek Aberle.
Derek Aberle
Thank you Steve and good afternoon everyone. As Steve noted, we delivered a
solid quarter achieving record non-GAAP operating income. QCT operating
performance was in-line with expectations as favourable operating expense
offset slightly weaker mix. QTL performance was ahead of expectations with
revenues, earnings before tax, and total reported device sales all setting
records driven by strong 3G, 4G device shipments, improved compliance in
China and a catch up amount for prior period sales from the licensee with
which we recently resolved the dispute.
Fiscal Q2 revenue for QTL was up approximately 17% year-over-year even
without this catch up amount and in the face of foreign exchange headwinds,
QTL would have delivered a record quarter across these same metrics. As you
are aware, we recently announced a resolution with China’s National
Development and Reform Commission regarding the investigation of us under
the China antimonopoly law. As part of this resolution, we agreed to
implement a rectification plan that modifies certain of our business
practices with respect to the licensing of our 3G and 4G essential Chinese
patterns for branded devices sold for use in China.
Since that time we have been implementing the plan and offered the revised
license terms for our current 3G and 4G essential Chinese patterns to both
our current licensees and to a number of unlicensed OEMs and manufacturers.
Following the offers we have met with a large number of licensees both in
and outside of China to discuss the revised terms. Although we are still
relatively early in the process, we are making good progress to date as over
35 licensees have accepted the revised terms so far, including with respect
to 3-mode devices sold in China.
The rate at which licensees are accepting the new terms and signing new
license agreements has been accelerating throughout the process. We now have
125 licensees in total with licences covering 3-mode devices with more than
85 in China, including Huawei and ZTE. We are making progress on the
underreporting issues in China as well. We estimate that approximately 200
million units were sold during calendar 2014, but not reported to us by our
licensees in line with our prior guidance.
To put this in greater context, we have also increased our estimates for the
calendar 2014 global 3G 4G market by approximately 20 million units versus
our prior guidance and now believe that a larger percentage of the units
shipped in 2014 where 3-mode devices where we had a low collection rate
during the year. In other words, the percentage of calendar 2014 units that
were reported to us came in higher than previously expected. As we continue
to implement our compliance and audit plans, as well as conclude new 3-mode license agreements we believe that this collection percentage will continue
to increase and we are seeing early evidence of that in the March quarter
sales. While we are making good progress we do expect this process to extend beyond
this fiscal year. It is also possible that in some cases it may require
litigation and/or actions to compel certain licensees to honour the
contracts and for unlicensed companies to execute new licences. We are
prepared to pursue that path if it becomes necessary. We are raising our
fiscal year outlook for QTL based on favourable total reported device sales
in the second fiscal quarter, in addition to higher forecasted total
reported device sales for the second half of the fiscal year. Total reported
device sales for the second fiscal quarter came in above the high-end of
our guidance range, a portion of which was driven by higher than expected
catch up amounts.
Our outlook for the second half of the fiscal year reflects updated
favourable reported device sales trend, improved compliance in China, and
expected continued progress on concluding license agreements in China,
offset by foreign exchange headwinds. We now expect QTL revenues to grow
approximately 8% at the midpoint year-over-year. This includes the
favourable effect of some catch up payments for prior sales offset by the
negative effect of foreign exchange, without including these two effects we
estimate that QTL revenues would grow by more than 8% in fiscal 2015, as we
believe the negative foreign exchange impact is larger than the catch up
benefit.
Turning to our view of global 3G, 4G device demand we continue to see very
healthy growth and have increased our calendar 2014 global 3G, 4G device
shipment estimate to approximately 1.37 billion units, up approximately 27%
year-over-year. As a reminder, this includes those devices we expect to be
reported to us, as well as our estimates of unreported and unlicensed device
sales, but excludes TD-SCDMA devices that do not implement LTE.
We saw strength in both developed and emerging regions during 2014 and
finished the year with favourable replacement rate trends in developed
regions, as well as LTE volume strength, particularly in China. We expect
these growth trends to continue throughout calendar 2015. We now expect
global 3G, 4G device shipments to be 1.25 billion units to 1.6 billion units
in calendar 2015, up approximately 11% to 17% with our buyers continuing to
be towards the high end of that range.
It’s worth noting that we are still in the very early days of LTE adoption.
According to GSMA intelligence only 8% of global connections are LTE. In
February, China granted nationwide FTD-LTE licenses to both China Telecom
and China Unicom, each of the Chinese operators has announced significant
investments in LTE network build-outs and has set aggressive targets for
subscriber additions this year. For calendar year 2014, we are increasing
our estimate of reported 3G, 4G devices to between 1.17 4 billion units and
1.19 billion units.
Turning to estimated 3G, 4G device ASPs, the ASP of devices reported to QTL
during the second quarter of fiscal 2015 was approximately $196 at the mid-
point. Absent the effect of prior period catch up units the reported ASP
would have been approximately $211 at the mid-point up $14 sequentially,
driven by stronger ASPs in both emerging and developed regions, reflecting a
favourable mix of higher tier handsets.
We are now forecasting global 3G, 4G device DSPs to the decline
approximately 11% to 12% year-over-year in fiscal 2015, an improvement to
our previous estimate of 12% to 13%, despite an increase in negative foreign
exchange effects. The improvement is primarily due to a favourable mix of
higher tier handsets and stronger pricing in the low to mid-tiers of LTE
devices in China. We now expect global 3G, 4G total device sales in fiscal
2015 to be up approximately 8% to 11% over fiscal 2014, despite foreign
exchange headwinds, driven by both stronger units and ASP, particularly in
emerging regions.
Turning to the regulatory issues, we have been notified that the Korean fair
trade commission is conducting a new investigation of the company. We
believe this new investigation relates primarily to our licensing business
and we are cooperating with the agency. To conclude, QTL is making good
progress on our efforts in China, while experiencing strength in underlying
demand where we continue to see strong global 3G, 4G device sales and
stronger global ASP trends.
That concludes my comments. I will now turn the call over to George Davis.
George Davis
Thank you Derek and good afternoon everyone. Fiscal second-quarter revenues
were $6.9 billion, up 8% year-over-year and non-GAAP earnings per share were
$1.40, up 7% year-over-year at the high end of for prior guidance range. In
QCT, MSM shipments were $233 million in-line with expectation with revenue
of $4.4 billion. Implied revenue for MSM was approximately $19, down
slightly quarter-over-quarter, reflecting a lower mix of premium tier
shipments than previously expected.
QCT operating margin was 17% in-line with our prior expectations. In QTL,
total reported device sales for our licensees were a record $75.8 billion,
up 14% year-over-year and at the high end of our guidance range, including
the impact of our higher than expected catch up report. Non-GAAP combined R&
D and SG&A expenses increased 2% sequentially, driven primarily by seasonal
increases in payroll taxes.
We continue our aggressive capital return program, returning approximately $
2.6 billion to stockholders in the quarter, including $689 million of
dividends paid and $1.9 billion in stock repurchases.
And as you will recall, in March we announced a major increase in our
capital return program, including an increase in our stock repurchase
authorization to $15 billion and our plans for a $10 billion buyback in the
next 12 months, which is incremental to our ongoing return of a minimum of
75% of free cash flow.
Fiscal second quarter cash flow from operations was negative at
approximately $650 million this quarter reflecting a long-term capacity
prepayment of approximately $950 million made by QCT as part of our supply
chain cost reduction initiatives and the payment of the approximately $975
million NDRC fine.
We ended the quarter with cash and marketable securities of $29.6 billion.
Our non-GAAP tax rate during the quarter was 20% above expectations due to
business mix. We now expect our non-GAAP tax rate to be approximately 19%
for fiscal 2015.
Looking ahead, as we already indicated, we are reducing our financial
forecast for fiscal 2015 primarily due to lower excepted and profitability
in the premium tier for the QCT business. We now estimate fiscal 2015
revenues overall to be in the range of approximately $25 billion to $27
billion, down approximately 2% year-over-year at the midpoint. The increased
impact of the product cycle issues in QCT is affecting our revenue and
margin outlook for the chip business. We now expect QCT revenue for the
fiscal year to be down approximately 6% year-over-year with operating margin
for fiscal 2015 between 14% and 17%.
We expect combined non-GAAP R&D and SG&A expense to be up 1% to 3% year-over
-year. This represents a reduction of 2% overall relative to our prior
guidance, however, this outlook does not factor in potential reductions to
be identified as part of the cost assessment that Steve discussed.
On the QTL, as Derek indicated, we are raising our fiscal 2015 revenue
outlook to approximately 8% growth year-over-year reflecting higher total
reported device sales as well as the larger than forecasted catch up
royalties reported this past quarter. We continue to expect QTL operating
margins will be within our prior 85% to 86% guidance range.
We expect fiscal 2015 non-GAAP earnings per share to be in the range of $4.
60 to $5, down approximately 9% year-over-year at the midpoint relative to
fiscal 2015 and down $0.15 at the midpoint from our prior guidance.
Turning to our fiscal third quarter, we estimate revenues to be in the range
of approximately $5.4 billion to $6.2 billion, down approximately 15% year-
over-year and 16% sequentially at the midpoint. The sequential changes
reflect both the chip revenue challenges and the normal seasonal effects of
QTL coming of its seasonal peak quarter.
We estimate non-GAAP earnings per share in our fiscal third quarter to be in
the range of $0.85 to $1 dollar per share, down approximately 36% year-over
-year at the midpoint. We expect fiscal third quarter non-GAAP combined R&D
and SG&A expenses will be up 6% to 8% sequentially, primarily driven by QCT
product roadmap spend that back half loaded, certain supply chain
initiatives, as well as cost related to marketing and legal.
In QTL, we estimate total reported device sales of $61 billion to $67
billion will be reported by our licensees in the June quarter for shipments
they made in the March quarter, up approximately 10% year-over-year at the
midpoint, but lower sequentially as compared to the seasonally higher
holiday quarter shipments in Q2.
We estimate that the QTL reported device ASP will be modestly up versus the
second fiscal quarter, which included higher-than-expected lower price catch
up units. We expect QTL’s operating margin percentage to be between 83%
and 85%, lower sequentially due to seasonal factors, OEM mix, as well as
increases in marketing and legal expenses. We expect that the implied
royalty rate as we calculate it will be lower quarter-over-quarter,
reflecting licensee mix, as well as the impact of the new licensing terms in
China.
In QCT, we anticipate MSM shipments of approximately 210 million to 230
million units during the June quarter, down approximately 6% sequentially
and down approximately 2% year-over-year at the midpoint. We expect revenue
per MSM to be down 8% to 9% sequentially due to unfavorable mix in the
premium tier and price competition in the mid tier.
We expect QCT operating margin for this product cycle to bottom in the
fiscal third quarter at approximately 7% to 10% of revenue, reflecting lower
volumes, weaker mix, and timing of roadmap spending pushed into the quarter.
That concludes my comments and will now turn the call back to Warren.
Warren Kneeshaw
Thank you, George. Operator, we are ready for questions.
Question-and-Answer Session
Operator
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line
of Tim Long with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead with your question.
Tim Long
Thank you. Just a question on the chip side, I guess you mentioned before
the GS6, you also mentioned the Note, so just curious is that this upcoming
one later this year? And maybe talk a little bit about how we should think
about the rest of Samsung’s portfolio? And clearly, it’s hit the revenue
numbers, I’m curious if that’s also been something that looks like the
gross margin is down again for the division. So if you could just maybe
touch on Samsung impact across the model? Thanks.
Steve Mollenkopf
Hi, Tim, it’s Steve. So you should think of the current generation of
flagship products at Samsung. We anticipate a similar share picture than
what you see today on the GS6. I think that’s what we’re seeing. Now, next
design cycle, as I mentioned in my remarks, I think we feel that we have a
very competitive roadmap. We are also seeing OEMs and I think the supplies
to that OEM, looking at their portfolio and rationalizing, what that really
means is putting more concentration on the newer products and less on the
legacy products as you would typically see in a particular year and that
obviously given our design and share impacts the outlook as well. So, those
product cycle issues I think we’re seeing being compounded by the fact that
the premium tier is very concentrated really in two players right now.
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Brian Modoff with Deutsche Bank.
Please go ahead with your question.
Brian Modoff
Hi, guys. Can you perhaps talk about some of the cost synergies or cost
saving that you might see as you go through this kind of evaluation of your
cost structure? Are you targeting things like wafer design cycle times? Or
can you maybe talk about it and how do you see that potentially helping your
operating margins particularly in QCT as move forward? Thanks.
George Davis
Hi, Brian, it’s George. I would call it an acceleration of many of the
things that we started in 2014, which were fairly comprehensive. We brought
down the rate of spending substantially in 2014 exiting the year lower than
the run rate we had coming into 2014. We then forecasted to bring it down
further in 2015 and we’ve actually are a couple of points below our
original guidance on OpEx as well. But we will be looking pretty
comprehensively across the board and certainly that touches everything from
how can we be – become more efficient testing projects once again for ROI
and things like that. So, as you would expect, it will be comprehensive and
we look forward to reporting on it next quarter.
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Mike Walkley with Canaccord
Genuity. Please go ahead with your question.
Mike Walkley
Great, thanks. Just down on the last two questions, on the QCT with
operating margins potentially bottoming out below 10% in the third quarter,
September quarter, and you talked about it extending into the first half of
fiscal 2016. Other than looking at operating cost, how does the gross margin
improve given the competitive cost environment? Or to ask it another way
what’s the timeframe in the thought process to maybe get back to high-teens
to 20% operating margins in QCT? Thank you.
George Davis
I think we view it as a bottom because, first, Q3 really is an incredibly
concentrated quarter when you look at the premium tier and it has within
that meaningful Samsung GS6 impact. We expect to see some improvement with
the premium tier launches of other leading OEMs that use our Snapdragon. We
also expect cost and efficiency activities to start to moderate some of the
market structure impacts over time, but ultimately we are going to continue
to invest strongly in the roadmap and we think that’s the basis for
having a competitive position in the next product cycle that is different
than what we are experiencing now.
Steve Mollenkopf
Mike this is Steve, I think also if you look up and down the product line,
the current product cycle that we are in at the top tier, we think it turns
over with the 820, at the bottom tier you tend to see a modem transition,
particularly in China, which is advantageous we think to us. We are also
moving rapidly toward advanced notes which we think will actually help us in
terms of delivering products to market at better costs. There is a little
bit of a trough right now in the cost equation because we are at 20
nanometre. As we move on to further notes we think we get into a better cost
perspective and I think we are differentiated also in our ability to do it.
We are also – just to follow up on the cost side, cost structure of the
company, we want to make sure that we put ourselves in the position, we are
a little bit less sensitive to the these market dynamics and then we can
write them out easier as well. One other thing element on that also is that
the adjacent markets as they start to contribute more, again I said they
were about 10% of QCT this year that tends to help us as well. They tend to
be fairly highly leveraged from the same investment on the selling space.
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Ehud Gelblum with Citigroup.
Please go ahead with your question.
Ehud Gelblum
Hey guys appreciate it. I know Derek you are not going to totally tell us,
but trying to try and give a couple of data points you gave us with respect
to the catch up and how large that was, any other information you can give
us in terms of the access TRDS this quarter that the catch up helped would
help kind of bridge the gap between the TRDS this quarter and next quarter.
So, whatever you can do to give us a sense as to the size of the catch up
period in this quarter would be helpful.
Then Steve question on GS 6 and note going forward, I understand of the
revolution of using your custom core and moving them to 14 nanometre et
cetera with everything you said about concentration at the premium tier, if
in a situation you don’t get back into Samsung, where does that leave
you? If your share in the GS 6 and note going forward is roughly the same as
where it is now when it is back-and-forth, is there enough other market to
make the margins work back into the 20% plus range at QCT?
Derek Aberle
Hey this is Derek. Yes we are not, as you suspect we weren’t planning on
breaking out exactly the amount of the catch up. One of the points I wanted
to highlight was we had 17% year-over-year growth in QTL this quarter and
that was in the face of some meaningful foreign exchange headwinds. And so
when you sort of looked at that impact netted against the catch up amount,
you know the foreign exchange impact was actually for the year will be
greater and would be for the quarter as well. So still even if you strip out
the ketchup would be a record quarter for QTL and really strong growth.
Steve Mollenkopf
And Ehud on the question about the premium tier and the concentration. First
of all when we look at customer interest we don’t think that that is the
scenario to plan for. We do think that our roadmap is very compelling, we
like the impact that we are getting, the interest that we are getting from
the OEMs, I think broadly we also think our business, which is also
supported by our modem leadership also we think is in a good position when
you look at the competitive dynamics as well. That being said, it would help
us a lot if the industry structure was to be different. We don’t have a
lot of control over that, but I would say the history of that is that it
does move around quite a bit. We want to be in a position to participate in
that and I think one of the reasons that we are looking at our cost
structure is to make that easier to handle, should we have to ride out a
product cycle or not.
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Blaine Curtis with Barclays.
Please go ahead with your question.
Blaine Curtis
Yes a [indiscernible], just maybe from a very high level you obviously
already reduced full-year guidance based upon kind of same factors and
Apples place generally hasn’t changed that much since December they had a
knock out quarter and it’s been kind of holding in. Samsung has been very
public about their AP plans for a longer time here for a change. So, I am
just trying to figure out what has changed really since the end of the last
year and definitely spend your first negative revision of maybe a billion
dollars, now that you are doing again. And then when you look at gross
margin, clearly the GS6 that shouldn’t have an impact on gross margin, I’m
just curious it looks like it is down again in June. What’s really the
driver for another step down over a couple hundred basis points? Thanks.
Derek Aberle
So, the change in the guidance is really more a change in our view of the
sizing and concentration in the third quarter compared to our original
estimates. And you know Steve talked about some things about some of the
OEMS pushing out their timing based on what they were seeing in the
marketplace and other factors. There is some gross margin impact actually
that we see going into Q3 and then I think the balance of the impact is
really the timing roadmap spending is heavier in the second half. I don’t
know, if Steve, you want to say something.
Steve Mollenkopf
I was just going to say, just a little bit of color from a perspective of an
OEM, OEMs typically have a pretty broad portfolio and they may put emphasis
in one place or another depending on the reaction of a flagship launch and
the timing of a flagship launch. I think this year is probably characterised
a bit by the first calendar quarter of 2015 was probably a little stronger
in quarter for U.S. based flagship company. And then people move around I
think based off of big launch. So, I think when the Galaxy S6 came out
people moved around their plans a little bit, including Samsung. So, that
tends to ripple through to us beyond our control. Those things can also
change a lot during the year, but I think this is our best estimate of where
we are today.
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Kulbinder Garcha with Credit
Suisse. Please go ahead with your question.
Kulbinder Garcha
Thanks. My question is for Derek on the licensing side, what I’m trying
to understand is I think you said you had signed 35 licensees on these new terms since you’ve started discussing with them recently, can you give us
some kind of broad indications to, does that actually cover a significant
part of the forms that you weren’t licensing the 200 million or so run
rate. That’s just one question, because I’m trying to think about the
visibility you might have as we head into fiscal year 2016 of recapturing
some of those licensing revenues. That’s my kind of first question. The
second one is as I think about what you weren’t collecting on last year
that 200 million number this year would have grown I assume given the market
shares the Chinese vendors have gained and they would have grown revenues
quite meaningfully as well. So, should we think about at some point over the
next whether it is one two or three years? That 200 million unit number
which has a revenue number attached to it in TDRS, so you then license
against and it should be significantly higher when it starts coming in or is
that the wrong way of thinking about it. Thanks.
Derek Aberle
Kulbinder this is Derek. So just to be clear the 200 million number that we
put out for 2014 is sort of a combination of units that we think are
actually being sold by licensees who didn’t report them, as well as
basically unlicensed activity, you know the most prominent one we talked
about is 3-mode. So, it is a little bit hard to translate that over into the
– kind of the new terms. If you think about the new terms that we are
going out to offer, if the licensees accept them after we offer them and
discuss them with them they will impact both the 3G volumes which would be
sort of how we’ve thought about the under reported amounts, as well as then
impact the 3-mode, which we had kind of bucketed at unlicensed.
So it is a little bit hard to split that out in terms of what percentage get
picked up that we weren’t collecting anything on at all, but we are,
well I think we are making good progress, we’ve got relatively
significant number that kind of run the spectrum of very large to small
companies that have already accepted the terms and generally when they’ve
accepted them they’ve applied to the 3-mode devices sold for use in China.
So, I think that has been a positive trend for us. There have been a couple
of other positive things. One is as I try to explain the market we think
actually came in larger in 2014 than we thought when we originally gave out
that 200 million unit number, which means by that holding steady effectively
our collection percentage went up. It also went up in the face of kind of a
worse or a more difficult market shift because more of the market also we
believe was three-mode where there is a larger portion of unlicensed
activity.
So kind of in a worsening marketing environment and a growing market, we
were able to kind of hold the number flat, which means we are making
progress. We believe that that’s going to better even going into the March
quarter based on the early evidence we’re seeing. And we do have kind of a
plan as we’ve talked about that – that the past sales will be things that
we are working on to drive collection, but it’s going to take some time and
I think we’ve indicated just where we sit in the fiscal year with kind of
the June cut off for shipments flowing into our fiscal year. It’s likely
that more of that will come-in in fiscal 2016 and fiscal 2015.
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein.
Please go ahead with your question.
Stacy Rasgon
Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my question. First of all, if I sort of back
into the royalty rate trajectory, you seem to be guiding royalty rates or
implied rates next quarter to maybe 3%, probably down 20 basis points and
maybe even a little more in fiscal Q4. So I’m assuming that is mix as the
China volume starts to come back in which it actually is coming at the lower
rate, how should I think about the trajectory of royalty rates as I go into
2016 and beyond is presumably the Chinese volume should be the piece that’
s growing the biggest and it will be under the new royalty rate terms?
Derek Aberle
Hey, Stacy, this is Derek. Yeah, I mean we’ve indicated that. If you look
at sort of quarter-over-quarter Q1 to Q2 relatively speaking sort of in line
in terms of the implied rate that you guys calculate, we do see that taking
a step down in the back half of the year and I think you pretty much hit it
on the head that really the primary drivers, there’s some OEM mix in there
and a number of the other factors that always move it around. But we do
expect a couple of things impacting the back half, two of which are the
licensees, kind of the impact of the licensees accepting the China terms in
China, but also with us concluding agreements on three-mode where we were
collecting before.
As we bring that revenue into the program that will come in at a lower rate
as we talked about when we announced the resolution. So kind of the
combination of those factors will push it down. Really hard to say longer-
term beyond kind of this year where that goes just for all the reasons I’ve
previously explained in terms of market share of OEMs and ASPs and caps and
all the other drivers that moving around.
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of James Faucette with Morgan Stanley
. Please go ahead with your question.
James Faucette
Great. Thank you very much. I wanted to ask two follow-up questions on a lot
of those that have already been asked. First, can you talk a little bit
about from a visibility standpoint, I think one of the things that may be
concerning to some investors is, I guess, the poor or lack of visibility
relative to new product launches. They seem to taking a little bit by
surprise. Can you talk about it if that indeed has been the case et cetera
on the chip side? And then on the royalty side, Derek, I just wanted to ask
about, as you are addressing the new licensing structure how are you
handling the non-essential IP licensing and how we should think about the
impact of that and can you give us any sense of – I know that you weren’t
very specific in terms of like what the – the rate at which things are –
or you are signing up new licensees, but that it’s improving. But in the
long run how should we think about your – what a reasonable alternate
capture rate should be and that kind of thing? Thank you.
Steve Mollenkopf
James on the chip side, the way I think about it – one of the big OEMs what
they tend to do, in fact the one that you are probably concerned with, they
tend to hold two designs until very late in the process and make a decision
very late in the process. And in some cases, actually might go to market
with multiple designs, one with our chip, one not with our chip, and then
make a decision regionally even during the ramp of the design. So it can be
quite difficult to project share and units as a result of doing that much
later in the process than I think people typically think. The other element
which is mix of OEMs and who wins in the marketplace and whether an OEM
decides to rationalize their portfolio by no longer focusing on SKUs in the
n-1 product cycle for example. That tends to be something that we don’t
have great visibility into and it tends to be something that the market
controls. So I think we are all trying to figure out how to get a better
handle on that.
Derek Aberle
And then – it’s Derek. So, on the first question, which really was around
how we are going to deal with the patents that are sort of outside the scope
of the commitment we made to the NDRC. As you know, we’ve typically
licensed generally our whole portfolio together, but one of the things that
we agreed to as part of the rectification plan in China is that we would
separately offer to license just the 3G/4G essential Chinese patents and
then we would negotiate agreements for the rest of the portfolio kind of
separate from that.
So really the first order of business for us is to go out and really
implement the commitment that we made which is to offer these terms and
around the essential portfolio and get those concluded. And then as part of
those discussions, it could involve some of the other patents or we could
end up dealing with the need for licenses to the rest of the portfolio down
the road a little bit. What we’ve included in our guidance and are thinking
around fiscal 2015 really just is based on what we would expect to collect
on the essential portfolio and doesn’t build in incremental revenue at this
point for the remainder of the portfolio, although we do believe there is
an opportunity there.
On compliance, we think that we are in a position really to kind of drive
the business back more to normal course before we had the investigation and
I think we are pleased with some of the early trends we are seeing. It’s
going to take some time to get there, but we do believe that we can get back
to a high compliance environment in China with some of the tools that we
have available to us and now with the investigation behind us.
We do also think there is going to be some industry dynamics that will help,
I do think there is going to be consolidation ar ound the OEM base in China,
so you’ll have a fewer number of larger payers, which I think is just an
easier thing to deal with from compliance standpoint than a lot of smaller
players. And they are going to build successful export businesses where
there is a need to play by international rules both inside and outside of
China. So I think over time those trends really point in a positive
direction for us.
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Tal Liani with Bank of America
Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead with your question.
Tal Liani
Hi, guys. I just have two questions quick questions kind of big one. First,
when it comes to exchange rate, are we – what’s the mechanism for exchange
rate? Is there a risk that actually you see the impact of exchange rate
next quarter because of the mechanism that you can clarify? And then the
weird question I have is really for next year and this question was asked
many times, but may be a different way, is it all – if you think about
competition, I mean you think about MediaTek and Intel and Marvell and the
local Chinese, how does it get better from here? I understand that this one
is a trough from an expense point of view and margin point of view, but on
the business, how does it get better from here? What needs to happen for you
to see growth in revenues on the semiconductor side? And let me stop here [
indiscernible]. Thanks.
Derek Aberle
Tal, this is Derek. Maybe I will answer your first question on the FX.
Really the primary FX effect on the company is really around the licensing
business. And couple of things to remember there I think that you know is
that obviously the sales are reported to us one quarter in arrears. But the
basic – probably the most significant exposure for us is really the euro
and basically when the licensees and not all of them do it the same, so it’
s somewhat difficult to always estimate precisely the impacts, but I think
we have a pretty good sense of it at a higher magnitude. But basically there
is a mechanism for them to convert their sales in local euro back into
dollars for purposes to calculate in the royalties and that creates an
impact to the business. If you think about this year, in particular, there
is probably at least a couple of percentage points of revenue growth that
QTL has been impacted by just on FX alone.
Steve Mollenkopf
And on next year and to the forward-looking view in terms of the competitive
environment, it’s – I would say for us, it’s – we don’t see it
changing that much and I would say our view of the current competitive
environment may be different than what you see, you know we look at the
modem tier and modem leadership and the accounts where that’s important and
we pretty good about our position there. I think that’s an important
differentiator for us. We have also moved quickly to advanced nodes. One of
the things we did this year and we are currently investing in is moving
rapidly across the tiers to the advanced nodes, which we think is a good
strategy and enables us to leverage our feature leadership in the premium
tier down and that I think has good results.
It’s being offset a little bit now because of the concentration in the
premium tier, so you’re not seeing that maybe as broadly as you would
think. The product cycle is quite fast in China as I mentioned. The modem
transition later this year, I think a number of OEM, our competitors are
having a difficult time producing five more designs and certainly have in
the ability to do multi-SIM and all of the VOIP and international features
that allow them to grow, at the same time we are changing the table stakes
across the tiers on the modem. So we actually view our roadmap as getting
stronger over time at least based on our view of the competitive environment
. I don’t think at the premium tier with the exception of the vertical
threat at one of the OEMs. We don’t see that dynamic being as threatening
as perhaps was implied in the question.
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Timothy Arcuri with Cowen &
Company. Please go ahead with your question.
Timothy Arcuri
Thank you very much I had two. First of all Steve, can you again just from a
higher level, can you remind us or maybe discuss the high level merits for
keeping the two businesses together. You had filed previously to spit the
business up in the past, but you are being hit with these investigations and
this new one from Korea. So again just getting your view there would be
good. And then secondly I noted that George talked about having to pre-pay
950 million for some capacity and that’s in the space of declining
economics in the ship business. So, I was wondering if you can just discuss
how we should be thinking about that pre-payment is this opportunistic or is
it more of a defensive I guess?
Steve Mollenkopf
So, on the business structure it’s something that we’ve looked out
throughout the company’s history, I think a couple of times even publically
it is something that is constantly and periodically discussed at the
management team and at the board level. There are lot of puts and takes and
those puts and takes change over time depending on the situation, but I
would say just broadly you should think of the businesses as having
significant synergies in the ability to deliver products to market.
So, for example the channel of QCT is very, very important to be able to
introduce new technology into the industry and share it’s scale and be able
to work. There are many things like that, but that is one of the ones that
we want to make sure we can maintain, particularly given that we are driving
into an environment where you’re going to see convergence between Wi-Fi
and Cellular and the modem itself is moving much more rapidly then I think
people are thinking. At the same time the industry, the number of players
who are investing in those technologies and that breadth of technology is
decreasing. So we think we have an opportunity for us to continue to deliver
modem innovation. That being said, it is something that we actively
evaluate and it’s obviously something that is one the minds of investors
and something that we spend time talking to them actively about getting
their perspective.
George Davis
Hey Tim, it’s George. On the capacity pre-payment it’s really part of our
overall supply chain initiative to drive more cost effective supply chain
and it’s an opportunity that we saw and that our partners saw to bring them
a little bit more certainly and for them to provide us with a better long
term cost roadmap.
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of C.J. Muse with Evercore ISI.
Please go ahead with your question.
C.J. Muse
Yes good afternoon. Thank you for taking my question. I guess first question
, in terms of QCT, can you walk through implied PBT [ph] margins into
September and your long term outlook for MSM pricing and then a little bit
bigger picture thanking on the chipset side. As you think about adjacent
growth, particularly hyper connected areas like IOT and Auto, do you have
the scale across technology customer relationships and distribution to
succeed or do you need to look at acquisitions, and if yes, would you
consider large scale M&A, or would you continue to focus solely bolt-on
acquisitions. Thank you.
George Davis
It’s George. On our margin you are seeing the effects both of the
positioning within the premium tier which is having some impact on the gross
margin, but also primarily it’s the increase in Opex in the quarter having
a little bit of an effect as well. So, it is a combination of mix of the
Opex effects and just the market overall in the third quarter.
A – Steve Mollenkopf
And with respect to the adjacent businesses, there are a lot of technologies
that are leveraged from the mobile space. There are some things that are
not, for example, we got things like networking from the Atheros acquisition
and we believe we are going to get a strong portfolio of technologies with
the announced acquisition of CSR, which we hope will close here in this year
. I think one of the things you get besides technology is the sales channel
and the ability to sell into different types of customer then our current
slate in the handset business. And we actively plan that out and that’s one
of the reasons why we have done M&A. It is also I think an environment in
the industry right now where there is a lot of consolidation, particularly
in the semi-conductor space and it is something that we think about and I
think we can potentially have an opportunity to de-risk some of those things
if we continue down through our strategy and we are trying to keep our
strategic options open at the same maintain our capital structure.
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Srini Pajjuri with CLSA. Please go
ahead with your question.
Srini Pajjuri
Thank you. Steve, this question has been asked, but I just want to ask a
little differently, you said in the modem differentiation is your key
competitive advantage and you seem to be banking on that, you know to regain
some of the business, I am just curious you know given that in a lead that
you have, it appears that Samsung is using an internal modem even now, even
though I guess they could have used your modem with their own processor, I
am just wonder, is the modem technology that mature that customers don’t
care as much about the differentiation or in a – what do you think cause
that.
Steve Mollenkopf
Well I think when you have a vertical decision there could be many more
elements in the decision than just technical merits or what might have
happened outside of that environment. They have the ability to share one
place or the other. When we look at the tier downs of those decisions we
tend to see that it compares at least from a feature and a geography point
of view to a product that we probably delivered two generations ago. So, I
would actually view it as more evidence of our modem lead.
Now it is possible to portions of the SKUs without having the modem
expertise, but I think you are always better off having in the application
processor and the modem together and have that worldwide scale, particularly
given the industry structure today. We are seeing that the very attractive
in the case of the internal OEMs or the Chinese OEMs that want to go
international. So, we still think that modem is an important component. If
you look what’s in the head of any modem player they have enormous number
of [indiscernible] they have to sink up Wi-Fi and the cellular network. Just
recently the FCC gave a very positive ruling on the spectrum that will be
used for LTE-U.
So, we think the modem still has an enormous migration and then upstream and
then beyond that you are going to have 5G. So the modem continues to be big
. In addition, hopefully we are not downplaying the strength of our
application process. So, we have – we think the best mobile CPU coming and
that’s going to be a portfolio of products, not just one product and our
strength in the GPU is, I think quite strong, we are market leader in terms
of mobile GPU shipments and look at the performance of the 89, 94 I think
you would see it’s quite strong. So, we feel like we are in a good position
. We just need to get through this product cycle, maintain the investment in
the roadmap and at the same time sort of get ourselves in a position where
we can weather out these storms a little bit easier and I think we are going
to have a reasonable business there.
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Tavis McCourt with Raymond James.
Please go ahead with your question.
Tavis McCourt
Thanks for taking my question. Derek you ran through a few numbers, now I
want to make sure I had them right, they are not addition up to me. I think
you said QTL ASP this year would be down 11% to 12% in the fiscal year.
Device sales would be up 8% to 11% but revenues will be up 8% or so, was
that the right numbers for fiscal 2015?
George Davis
So I think we probably – we kind of mix-and-match a little bit. The units
are for calendar year. The ASP that we gave was a global ASP, that’s
remember not the one that necessarily will get reported to us, that sort of
the all-in number assuming we were getting 100% compliance. We haven’t
given guidance on a reported ASP for fiscal 2015 for a number of reasons,
including it’s probably going to get bounced around by things like catch up
payments and the timing of signing some of these new agreements. So I think
that may be your difficulty in trying to triangulate the numbers back to
the 8% revenue guide for QTL.
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Mark Sue with RBC. Please go ahead
with your question.
Mark Sue
Thank you. In the past [indiscernible], it didn’t make economic sense where
some of the smartphone makers do spend money to develop their own chipsets
just for their internal consumption. However, it doesn’t seem that would
change anytime soon because the market is maturing and Samsung, Apple, they
all want to focus on improving their margins. So within those confines, how
should we think about the automation in terms of pushing it to new markets
outside of smartphones and how to fund those investments so that we can
actually see a better return on the invested capital in other segments of
the business? Thank you, gentlemen.
Steve Mollenkopf
Mark, you are breaking up a little bit. So I will try to answer what the
question was and I think it was related to how we can continue to invest and
have confidence given that some people are trying to go internal. Our
evaluation of the efforts to go internal, they actually tend to be more
expensive than if you had bought them externally, particularly when you
amortize the R&D investment across all of the many different technologies
that are required to produce and integrate it or a mobile smartphone
offering. In fact, I would say, particularly, given the fact that in some
cases people are launching very early in the node, you really pay a penalty
for yield. And our estimate is that it would be quite expensive right now to
be launching without good yield.
I think you will also see if you look at teardowns, the difference between
the size both footprint on the board as well as cost to assemble all of the
components that we have in Snapdragon using external partners, it tends to
be fairly expensive. For example, Snapdragon has GPS integrated inside of it
and putting that on externally tends to be fairly expensive. There are
number of things, codec, a number of things that sit there and become more
expensive. So our view of the trend is that things are moving more toward
integrated versus less toward integrated. And when we look at the economics, it’s quite difficult we think to have people compete, have the same internal offering unless you have a fairly large scale, R&D scale.
Operator
This ends our allotted time for questions and answers. Mr. Mollenkopf, do
you have anything further to add before adjourning the call?
Steve Mollenkopf
Thank you very much for your attention. We look forward to a call next
quarter and will give you an update on our cost initiative at the time.
Thank you.
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today’s conference call. You may now
disconnect.